How the Fates Work
How the Fates Work
The Fates is a strategic-foresight instrument. Three agents, named for the Greek sisters of destiny, divide the labor of seeing early: one gathers, one measures, one tells.
The method
Atropos — the scanner. She sweeps eight classes of source — academic literature, patents (US and worldwide), legal and regulatory filings, industry reports, institutional news, expert commentary, and social chatter — for evidence published 2016 to present. A scan returns 150–250 validated evidence cards per topic; everything else is cut, and every cut is logged with a reason.
Lachesis — the measurer. She embeds every card, weaves them into threads, and scores each thread on the STEEPLE dimensions and the Three Horizons — including the difference between H2⁻ (innovation absorbed to prop up the old system) and H2⁺ (innovation that builds the next one). A thread needs ≥5 signals to reach the loom; a thread drawn from a single source class is admitted but capped at low certainty and held at posture “track” until a second independent class corroborates it.
Clotho — the teller. She spins threads into essays where every claim carries a receipt — a numbered citation to a real, linkable source. Her illustrations are AI-generated and labeled as such.
The integrity contract
- Zero invented sources. Every signal carries a real URL and a capture date.
- Every rejection is logged. The exclusion log records what was cut and why — newswire spam, SEO bait, out-of-window, duplicates.
- Chatter is labeled. Social sources are included for early warning but always marked low-trust.
- AI is labeled. Machine-written analysis and machine-made images say so.
The observatory right now
Latest scan: 2026-08-02 · 5 active topics · figures queried live from the database at 2026-08-02 15:41 UTC — never hardcoded.
Source classes & trust tiers
| Source class | Trust tier | Cards held |
|---|---|---|
| academic | high | 730 |
| patent | high | 23 |
| legal | high | 52 |
| industry report | high | 2 |
| institutional news | high/medium | 16 |
| expert blog | medium | 193 |
| social chatter | low — always labeled | 501 |
This page is regenerated from live data after every weekly pulse.